Soviet economic power was never really a threat to the United States owing to the vastly superior performance of the US economy, especially during the latter years of the Soviet Union’s existence. The Japanese economy became, in many ways, much more of a challenge to the United States, with its significant technological capability and successful multinational companies. However, even without Japans prolonged economic downturn since the 1990s, it is doubtful whether Japan is a large enough country for its economy to be able to overtake the US economy, let alone for)apan to become a serious challenger to US political dominance China, on the other hand. Is a different story. It clearly has the size and, if its economy continues to expand at a rate anywhere close to its recent performance. it is not only likely but almost inevitable that the Chinese economy will. in due course, recover its historical position as the largest economy in the world. Whether having the largest economy will necessarily mean that China carries the most political and economic influence is another matter.Emerging scenario discussion questions 1. What factors are likely to contribute towards a relative decline in US world influence in the coming years? 2. To what extent do you think this decline is inevitable? 3. Do you agree that China and India are the countries most likely to challenge US dominance in the near future? 4. What are likely to be the business implications of a change to a multipolar world and the restoration of ‘Asia’s weight in the global economy and world politic? 5. Outline the most likely scenario for the changing role of the United States over the next ten to twentyyears.
